Walkies

Writing in the British Journal of Health Psychology, Dr Deborah Wells, a psychologist from Queen’s University, Belfast, reviewed dozens of earlier research papers which looked at the health benefits of pet ownership and said dog owners tended to have lower blood pressure and cholesterol and suffered fewer minor ailments and serious medical problems. She confirmed that pet owners tended in general to be healthier than the average member of the population.

Dog-owners ‘lead healthier lives’, BBC News, January 21, 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/6279701.stm.

 

Portugal Drug Decriminalization after 10 Years

By any metric, Portugal’s drug-decriminalization scheme has been a resounding success. Drug usage in many categories has decreased in absolute terms, including for key demographic groups, like 15-to-19-year-olds. Where usage rates have increased, the increases have been modest — far less than in most other European Union nations, which continue to use a criminalization approach.

Portugal, whose drug problems were among the worst in Europe, now has the lowest usage rate for marijuana and one of the lowest for cocaine. Drug-related pathologies, including HIV transmission, hepatitis transmission and drug-related deaths, have declined significantly.

Beyond the data, Portugal’s success with decriminalization is illustrated by the absence of political agitation for a return to criminalization. As one might expect for a socially conservative and predominantly Roman Catholic country, the decriminalization proposal sparked intense controversy a decade ago.

Many politicians insisted that a vast parade of horribles would be unleashed, including massive increases in drug use among youth and the conversion of Lisbon into a “drug haven for tourists.”

But none of those scary scenarios occurred. Portuguese citizens, able to compare the out-of-control drug problems of the 1990s with the vastly improved situation now, have little desire to return to the days of criminalization. No influential politician advocates doing so.

Whatever one’s views on liberalizing drug laws, our debate should be grounded in empirical evidence — not speculation and fear-mongering.

Glenn Greenwald, Politico, October 14, 2010, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=A73C7532-E19F-B885-12BA1F5F235FE2FA

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/26/AR2010122600610_2.html

 

Daily Domestic Water Use in the U.S.

Total water use in the U.S. has declined from a peak in 1980 and flattened since. Domestic water use accounts for about 7%, thermoelectric power 49%, and irrigation 31%:

Estimates of water use in the United States indicate that about 410 billion gallons per day (Bgal/d) were withdrawn in 2005 for all categories summarized in this report. This total is slightly less than the estimate for 2000, and about 5 percent less than total withdrawals in the peak year of 1980.

Thermoelectric-power generation water withdrawals were an estimated 201 Bgal/d in 2005… Withdrawals for irrigation in 2005 were 128 Bgal/d.

Domestic water use includes indoor and outdoor uses at residences. Common indoor water uses are drinking, food preparation, washing clothes and dishes, and flushing toilets. Common outdoor uses are watering lawns and gardens and washing cars… Combined domestic self-supplied withdrawals and public-supplied deliveries totaled 29,400 Mgal/d in 2005.

Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2005, U.S. Geological Survey, 2009, http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1344/pdf/c1344.pdf.

 

U.S. High Wages and World Output

In the late 1800s and early 1900s, at a time when the U.S. became the world’s largest economy, the U.S. had increasing real wage rates for both skilled and unskilled workers, higher average incomes than Europe, had a declining wage/rent ratio when Europe was increasing, and had decreasing inequality trends when Europe was increasing. All of this occurred with minimal government.

Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson, Annual Wages in the United States, 1774-Present, MeasuringWorth, 2009, http://www.measuringworth.com/uswages/.

Real Wages and Relative Factor Prices in the Third World 1820-1940: The Mediterranean Basin, Jeffrey G. Williamson, Harvard Institute of Economic Research, July 1998, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/62_1842text.pdf.

wages

 

U.S. Share of Wealth by the Rich

http://www.mmisi.org/ir/16_02/higgs.pdf

wealth

While inequality did increase over the century before 1860, the difference in inequality may not be as large as current interpretations by Williamson and Lindert (1980a,b) suggest. Indeed, the current debate as to whether inequality remained high across the period, or whether it increased from a more equal distribution in 1774, may as much be the result of differences in databases, estimation techniques, and units of measurement, as to real differences in inequality.

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/fichiers/enseig/ecoineg/articl/Shanahanetal2000.pdf (http://www.jstor.org/pss/2120134)

Our series show that there has been a sharp reduction in wealth concentration over the 20th century: the top 1% wealth share was close to 40% in the early decades of the century but has fluctuated between 20 and 25% over the last three decades. This dramatic decline took place at a very specific time period, from the onset of Great Depression to the end of World War II, and was concentrated in the very top groups within the top percentile, namely groups within the top 0.1%.

http://www.columbia.edu/~wk2110/bin/estate-NBER.pdf

 

Gorilla Underwear

Man’s natural instinct, in fact, is never toward what is sound and true; it is toward what is specious and false. Let any great nation of modern times be confronted by two conflicting propositions, the one grounded upon the utmost probability and reasonableness and the other upon the most glaring error, and it will almost invariably embrace the latter. It is so in politics, which consists wholly of a succession of unintelligent crazes, many of them so idiotic that they exist only as battle-cries and shibboleths and are not reducible to logical statements at all… It is so in nearly every field of thought. The ideas that conquer the race most rapidly and arouse the wildest enthusiasm and are held most tenaciously are precisely the ideas that are most insane. This has been true since the first “advanced” gorilla put on underwear, cultivated a frown and began his first lecture tour, and it will be so until the high gods, tired of the farce at last, obliterate the race with one great, final blast of fire, mustard gas, and streptococci.

A Mencken Chrestomathy: His Own Selection of His Choicest Writing, H.L. Mencken, Page 7, http://www.amazon.com/Mencken-Chrestomathy-Selection-Choicest-Writing/dp/0394752090/.

We live in a land of abounding quackeries, and if we do not learn how to laugh we succumb to the melancholy disease which afflicts the race of viewers-with-alarm (vii).

 

Customer: EdinbVrgh & Dunbar, Scotland

 

Against Pessimism/Catastrophism

C-SPAN still can’t embed.

http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11583/The+Rational+Optimist+How+Prosperity+Evolves.aspx

 

The Dependence Effect

The “Dependence Effect” [described in The Affluent Society by Professor J. K. Galbraith]… starts from the assertion that a great part of the wants, which are still unsatisfied in modern society are not wants which would be experienced spontaneously by the individual if left to himself but are wants which are created by the process by which they are satisfied. It is then represented as self-evident that for this reason such wants cannot be urgent or important. This crucial conclusion appears to lead to a complete non sequitur… that the urgent need is therefore no longer a further expansion of the output of commodities but an increase of those services, which are supplied (and presumably can be supplied only) by government.

How complete a non sequitur Professor Galbraith’s conclusion represents is seen most clearly if we apply the argument to any product of the arts, be it music, painting, or literature. If the fact that people would not feel the need for something if it were not produced did prove that such products are of small value, all those highest products of human endeavor would be of small value. Professor Galbraith’s argument could be easily employed, without any change of the essential terms, to demonstrate the worthlessness of literature or any other form of art. Surely an individual’s want for literature is not original with himself in the sense that he would experience it if literature were not produced. Does this then mean that the production of literature cannot be defended as satisfying a want because it is only the production, which provokes the demand? In this, as in the case of all cultural needs, it is unquestionably, in Professor Galbraith’s words, “the process of satisfying the wants that creates the wants.”

The innate wants are probably confined to food shelter, and sex. All the rest we learn to desire because we see others enjoying various things. To say that a desire is not important because it is not innate is to say that the whole cultural achievement of man is not important.

The joint but uncoordinated efforts of the producers merely create one element of the environment by which the wants of the consumers are shaped. It is because each individual producer thinks that the consumers can be persuaded to like his products that he endeavors to influence them. But though this effort is part of the influences, which shape consumers’ tastes, no producer can in any real sense “determine” them.

Though the range of choice open to the consumers is the joint result of, among other things, the efforts of all producers who vie with each other in making their respective products appear more attractive than those of their competitors, every particular consumer still has the choice between all those different offers.

The critics of the free enterprise system have resorted to the argument that if production were only organized rationally, there would be no economic problem. Rather than face the problem, which scarcity creates; socialist reformers have tended to deny that scarcity existed. Ever since the Saint-Simonians their contention has been that the problem of production has been solved and only the problem of distribution remains.

For over a hundred years we have been exhorted to embrace socialism because it would give us more goods. Since it has so lamentably failed to achieve this where it has been tried, we are now urged to adopt it because more goods after all are not important. The aim is still progressively to increase the share of the resources whose use is determined by political authority and the coercion of any dissenting minority.

The Non Sequitur of the “Dependence Effect”, Friedrick A. Hayek, April 1961, http://mises.org/etexts/HayNonseq.pdf.

 

The Environmental Kuznets Curve

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)… [posits] pollution at first increasing and then decreasing as income increases.

The initial reaction to Grossman and Krueger (1991) was a flurry of work both empirical and theoretical. Empirical confirmation of their provocative findings soon came from World Bank researchers (Shafik and Bandyopadhyay [1992] and Shafik [1994]). Using additional environmental indicators and more countries, these researchers found either an EKC relationship or monotonically improving environmental quality with income (with the exception of dissolved oxygen in rivers and CO2).

In the popular press, economic growth per se began to be touted as the answer to environmental problems (e.g., Bartlett 1994). However, this was not quite what Grossman and Krueger (1991) had said. They were clear about the nature of their assumptions and put in the usual caveats typical of careful researchers. They were particularly forthcoming about the fact that the reduced-form nature of their model limited the policy implications of their results. Still Grossman and Krueger (1996) felt compelled to reiterate these points again in a policy forum piece in Environment and Development Economics and to emphasize that “there is nothing inevitable about the relationship between growth and environment that has been observed in the past… Arrow et al. (1995) conclude, ‘economic liberalization and other policies that promote GNP growth are not substitutes for environmental policy’. We would agree. But we would go further and state that neither is the suppression of economic growth or of economic policies conducive to it a suitable substitute for environmental policy.”

Grossman and Krueger (1991, 1995, 1996)… have clearly succeeded in changing the views of most economists, and the bulk of the empirical evidence supports them [on the points that] increases in income were not automatically associated with increased pollution [and] freer tradewould not necessarily make pollution worse.

On the main message taken from Grossman and Krueger’s work by the economics profession—that trade and higher income levels would make for a better environment— the supporting evidence is scant, fleeting, and fragile.

There is little evidence that stopping growth would improve pollution levels. Instead, there is robust evidence that pollution levels typically fall at high-income levels.

The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Seeking Empirical Regularity and Theoretical Structure, Richard T. Carson, Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, December 22, 2009, http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/content/4/1/3.full.pdf.

The work of Grossman and Krueger originally showed that pollution in the Soviet Union was worse than in the United states.