Poverty

In 2007, the last year not significantly affected by the Great Recession, the federal government spent about $1.45 trillion (roughly half of its total spending) on programs aimed at redistributing income from more wealthy Americans to the less wealthy.

The poverty rate declined significantly between 1959 and 1964 as the overall economy grew, but this was before the launch of President Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty (and therefore before the enactment of Medicaid and Medicare, two of the largest anti-poverty programs in existence today). Between 1966 and 2009, the poverty rate fluctuated with the business cycle but showed little downward trend, even as anti-poverty spending grew by a factor of six in real terms. In other words, our anti-poverty programs have been implemented at enormous and ever-increasing cost — and it is not clear that they have done much to reduce the rate of poverty.

Rethinking Redistribution, Jeffrey A. Miron, Harvard University, National Affairs, 2011, http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/rethinking-redistribution.

Perhaps the biggest reason why poverty declined from the 1950s through the mid–1970s was the steady increase in earnings (adjusted for inflation). The following table shows vividly how the two trends—poverty falling, earnings rising—tracked each other.

Community Advocates, Public Policy Institute, Poverty Can Be Greatly Reduced, http://www.ca-ppi.org/overview/.

Many researchers believe that the official method of measuring poverty is flawed. Some argue that poverty is a state of relative economic deprivation, that it depends not on whether income is lower than some arbitrary level but on whether it falls far below the incomes of others in the same society. But if we define poverty to mean relative economic deprivation, then no matter how wealthy everyone is, there will always be poverty. Others point out that the official measure errs by omission. For example, official poverty figures take no account of refundable tax credits or the value of noncash transfers.

Another problem with the official measure arises from the dynamic nature of poverty. Most Americans who experience poverty do so only temporarily. In the four years from 1996 through 1999, only 2 percent of the population was poor for two years or more. During the same period, 34 percent of the population was poor for at least two months. In short, persistent poverty is relatively uncommon.

Another criticism of the poverty measures is that they are based on income rather than on consumption. Consumption spending may be a better measure of well-being than reported income is, although data from the consumer expenditure survey have their own limitations. Daniel Slesnick found, using consumption spending, that the poverty rate fell from 31 percent in 1949 to 13 percent in 1965 and to 2 percent at the end of the 1980s. One rough indicator of the decline in poverty is the range of items that most poor homes now contain—from color TVs to VCRs to washing machines to microwaves—compared with the relative lack of these items in poor homes in the early 1970s.

Poverty in America, Isabel V. Sawhill, http://econlib.org/library/Enc/PovertyinAmerica.html.

 

Porn and Rape

I find that internet access appears to be a substitute for rape; in particular, the results suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in internet access is associated with a decline in reported rape victimization of around 7.3%. Given the limitations in my measure of pornography consumption, plus the usual concerns regarding omitted variables, functional form assumptions, and other confounding factors, such results by themselves may be unconvincing. Thus, I support this claim by showing that the internet has no apparent substitution effect on any of 25 other measured crimes, with the exception of the only other well-defined sex crime, prostitution. Moreover, I show that the effect on rape is concentrated among states with the highest male-to-female ratios, and that by age, the effect on rape is concentrated among teenage men, who are the prime consumers of pornography, and for whom the internet induced the largest change in availability.

In a similar vein, Dahl and DellaVigna (2006) find that film violence is a substitute for violent crime, and Gentzkow and Shapiro (2006) show that television viewing among children may improve test scores.

By October, 2003, Nielsen Net Ratings surveys indicated that 25% of internet users admitted to accessing an adult web site within the month… 12% of all internet websites, 25% of all search engine requests, and 35% of all peer-to-peer downloads are pornographic (Ropelato, 2006)

Kutchinsky (1973) does consider a potentially exogenous and significant event – pornography legalization in Denmark in 1965 – and finds that rape did not increase subsequently, and some forms of sexual violence actually decreased. Most similar to my research is Wongsurawat (2006), who focuses on a different privacy technology for transmitting pornography – post office boxes – and also finds that rape and pornography are net substitutes as well.

Pornography, Rape, and the Internet, Todd D. Kendall, Ph.D. Economics, University of Chicago, July, 2007, http://www.toddkendall.net/internetcrime.pdf.

Nine percent of surveyed women and 1.9 percent of surveyed men said they were raped by any type of assailant before age 18. Forty percent of surveyed women and 53.8 percent of surveyed men said they experienced some type of physical assault by an adult caretaker as a child.

Full Report of the Prevalence, Incidence, and Consequences of Violence Against Women, U.S. Department of Justice, November 2000, http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/183781.pdf.

 

Ethanol and Biofuel Subsidies

Additional biofuel production may have resulted in at least 192,000 excess deaths and 6.7 million additional lost DALYs in 2010. These exceed WHO’s estimated annual toll of 141,000 deaths and 5.4 million lost DALYs attributable to global warming. Thus, policies intended to mitigate global warming may actually have increased death and disease in developing countries.

Could Biofuel Policies Increase Death and Disease in Developing Countries?, Indur M. Goklany, Ph.D., Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons Volume 16 Number 1 Spring 2011, http://www.jpands.org/vol16no1/goklany.pdf.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 254 points in February, up 3.7 percent from January and the highest since July 2008. The increase in February mostly reflected further gains in international maize prices, driven by strong demand amid tightening supplies, while prices rose marginally in the case of wheat and fell slightly in the case of rice.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, March 3, 2011, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/.

The United States spends about $6 billion a year on federal support for ethanol production through tax credits, tariffs, and other programs. Thanks to this financial assistance, one-sixth of the world’s corn supply is burned in American cars. That is enough corn to feed 350 million people for an entire year… As a result of official policy in the US and Europe, including aggressive production targets, biofuel consumed more than 6.5% of global grain output and 8% of the world’s vegetable oil in 2010, up from 2% of grain supplies and virtually no vegetable oil in 2004.

Biofuels were initially championed by environmental campaigners as a silver bullet against global warming. They started to change their minds as a stream of research showed that biofuels from most food crops did not significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions – and in many cases, caused forests to be destroyed to grow more food, creating more net carbon-dioxide emissions than fossil fuels.

Today, it is difficult to find a single environmentalist who still backs the policy. Even former US Vice President and Nobel laureate Al Gore – who once boasted of casting the deciding vote for ethanol support – calls the policy “a mistake.” … It is refreshing that Gore has now changed his view in line with the evidence. But there is a wider lesson. A chorus of voices from the left and right argue against continued government support for biofuel. The problem, as Gore has put it, is that “it’s hard once such a program is put in place to deal with the lobbies that keep it going.”

Government support for biofuel is only one example of a knee-jerk “green” policy that creates lucrative opportunities for a self-interested group of businesses but does very little to help the planet. Consider the financial support afforded early-generation renewable-energy companies. Germany led the world in putting up solar panels, funded by $75 billion in subsidies. The result? Inefficient, uncompetitive solar technology sitting on rooftops in a fairly cloudy country, delivering a trivial 0.1% of Germany’s total energy supply, and postponing the effects of global warming by seven hours in 2100.

At least one group is already sold: presidential contenders. In Iowa last month, possible Republican candidate Newt Gingrich derided “big-city attacks” on ethanol subsidies. And, in what must be music to the industry’s ears, an Obama administration official declared that even amidst the highest food prices the world has seen, there is “no reason to take the foot off the gas” on biofuel.

A Race to Hunger, Bjørn Lomborg, March 10, 2011, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/lomborg70/English.

 

Customer: Leeds & London, U.K.

Droll thing life is– that mysterious arrangement of merciless logic for a futile purpose. The most you can hope from it is some knowledge of yourself– that comes too late– a crop of inextinguishable regrets.

I have wrested with death. It is the most unexciting contest you can imagine. It takes place in an impalpable greyness, with nothing underfoot, with nothing around, without spectators, without clamor, without glory, without the great desire of victory, without the great fear of defeat, in a sickly atmosphere of tepid skepticism, without much belief in your own right, and still less in that of your adversary. If such is the form of ultimate wisdom, then life is a greater riddle than some of us think it to be. I was within a hair’s-breadth of the last opportunity for pronouncement, and I found with humiliation that probably I would have nothing to say.

And perhaps all the wisdom, and all truth, and all sincerity, are just compressed into that inappreciable moment of time in which we step over the threshold of the invisible. Perhaps!

Heart of Darkness, Joseph Conrad, http://etext.virginia.edu/etcbin/toccer-new2?id=ConDark.sgm&images=images/modeng&data=/texts/english/modeng/parsed&tag=public&part=all.

 

The Chubby Blue Line

Overall, analysis yields very limited support for the police presence argument, suggesting that [police] strikes have neither a significant nor a systematic impact on rates of reported crime.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1983.tb00276.x/abstract

According to a 1997 report by The Economist, in 1970 the government police outnumbered private police by 40 percent, but “now there are three times as many private policemen as public ones. . . . Americans also spend a lot more on private security (about $90 billion a year) than they do, through tax dollars, on the public police ($40 billion).

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_07_2_higgs.pdf

http://www.lewrockwell.com/gregory/gregory213.html

You need only ask your friends and neighbors about the terrifying word “anarchy” to prove to yourself that our generations are just as stupid and foolish as any others. Even mentioning the word with a straight face is bound to put your acquaintances on edge, which is remarkable in itself. But, once they recover their senses from hearing the word pronounced out loud without a clap of thunder following on its heels, they will usually offer an argument against anarchism that rivals in its sheer stupidity any arguments that the flat-Earthers ever gave in antiquity.

It usually goes something like this: Human nature is so intrinsically evil and depraved that, without cops walking the streets, judges locking up potheads, and politicians buying hookers and crack in Washington, the entire world would devolve into a horrifying bloodbath. Murder and rape would run rampant as soon as the “criminals,” (that is, all of us, as per our shared evil nature), got word that the police were no longer in the business of shooting, beating and incarcerating them. Virtually everyone and everything would be killed or destroyed in the ensuing mayhem. Cannibalism would probably even reappear for the barbaric survivors of the initial anarchic bloodbath. That’s right, cannibalism.

So, as you can clearly see, the fragile fabric of society is held together ultimately by the simple police officer, whom we all take for granted, and whose life is spent deterring the innumerable “criminals” out there from butchering one another, like you and me. Without police officers, given human nature’s intrinsic depravity, life would indeed be “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.”

The sheer stupidity of arguments along the lines that human nature is so totally depraved that society would devolve into cruel chaos in the absence of police officers is almost difficult to fathom. One can forgive the flat-Earthers of yesterday for not being gifted enough in astronomy and mathematics to determine that the giant hunk of rock they stood on is spherical, but how can one forgive the people of today for thinking that that guy wearing blue polyester with mustard in his mustache in the corner of the deli is the very linchpin of human society? How can one forgive an intellectual error as large as the one that presumes that you and I would probably fight each other to the death if it wasn’t for that woman with a mullet and a radar gun under the highway overpass? How will future generations be able to comprehend an intellectual error as large as the one that holds that our very lives and our entire civilization hang oh-so tenuously from a 56-inch braided duty belt?

If human nature were truly as depraved as these arguments would have us believe, then the chubby blue line would long ago have been annihilated by its vastly numerically superior criminal adversaries. No “criminal” worth the name would be deterred from committing his favored atrocities by a small group of lightly-armed fat people, whose national reputation is tied inextricably to the donut. To even suggest that this 300 million-strong horde of savage, would-be criminals are kept at bay only by some irrational fear of blue polyester is so asinine that it makes the flat-Earthers look like geniuses by comparison.

This intellectual error is all the more inexcusable in America, where the population is armed to the teeth with high-powered rifles, pistols, and shotguns. If the American population were truly as depraved as this argument would have us believe all people are, then its bloodlust could hardly be contained by a few pudgy men and women carrying small caliber pistols.

Unlike those ultra-civilized “public servants,” you and I would like nothing more than to cut each other’s throats, if only the peace-loving police officers of the world weren’t holding us back. The truth, as anyone with eyes in America should be able to tell you, is precisely the reverse, since police officers and soldiers are often the most depraved perpetrators of the very crimes they claim to “protect” Americans from. The police are people just like us, after all, even if their waists are often larger, and they are capable of the same brutality as any other people.

Such is the magnitude of the error of dismissing the sublime idea of free-market anarchism by assuming that the geniuses in blue keep us savages from killing each other.

Anarchy vs. Barney Fife, Mark R. Crovelli, October 5, 2010, http://www.lewrockwell.com/crovelli/crovelli50.1.html.

Police and detectives held about 883,600 jobs in 2008.

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos160.htm

About 109 million Americans have guns [gallop.com, census.gov].

 

From Tiananmen to Tahrir

Multiple unarmed protesters were shot by their government when marching toward Bahrain’s Pearl Square. Some have renamed the square to Tahrir Square to commemorate Cairo. A striking image of protesters staring down tanks in the same place of the shooting brings back images of China’s Tienanmen Square.

Except the tanks are U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks.

 

Mutual Aid

Before government charity, voluntary mutual aid organizations (and churches) helped people. Their history shows that as a society becomes more rich, people can voluntarily help each other out, regardless of gender, class, or race. A modern equivalent would be very different, with actuarial science, larger pools, better communication, and generally more wealth with which to give aid.

More Americans belonged to fraternal societies than any other kind of voluntary association, with the possible exception of churches. A conservative estimate would be that one of three adult males was a member in 1920, including a large segment of the working class… Fraternalism was considerably more than a white male phenomenon. Its influence extended to such disparate groups as blacks, immigrants, and women… Societies accomplished important goals that still elude politicians… They successfully created vast social and mutual aid networks among the poor that are now almost entirely absent in many atomistic inner cities. Societies dedicated themselves to the advancement of mutualism, self-reliance, and good moral character. These values reflected a fraternal consensus that cut across such seemingly intractable divisions as race, gender, and income. Societies favored nonpartisanship to achieve harmony and to widen the applicant pool. Many members of the UOTR fought back with political action when the city of Richmond introduced Jim Crow streetcars. They helped organize boycotts and offered meeting facilities for protesters.

The usual practice of these societies was to consider applications for aid on a case-by-case basis. The Scots’ Charitable Society, for instance, allocated funds for such diverse purposes as ship passage, prison bail, and an old-age pension… Actuarial science was in an embryonic stage. [In 1842,] the Independent Order of Odd Fellows (100F)… initiated the first major departure from the often haphazard grants of previous societies by using a clear schedule of guaranteed benefits. Each member when taken sick could claim a regular stipend per week to compensate for working days lost. The geographically extended structure of the Odd Fellows allowed mobile members to retain benefits. It also facilitated a kind of coinsurance to mitigate local crises such as natural disasters or epidemics. In 1855 members in Massachusetts contributed more than $800 to relieve lodges in Pittsburgh that had exhausted their funds because of a fire.

In 1800 the fraternal scene (with the possible exception of Freemasonry) was characterized by small and localized societies with meager budgets and haphazard schedules of benefits. By 1900 Americans had flocked to far-flung national organizations with multiple lodges and hefty death and sick benefits.

The provision of insurance was the most visible manifestation of fraternal mutual aid. By 1920 members of societies carried over $9 billion worth of life insurance… Two of the three largest companies in the field, Prudential and Metropolitan Life, had evolved from fraternalism. Lodges offered two basic varieties of protection: cash payments to compensate for income from working days lost and the care of a doctor. Some societies, such as the SBA and the MWA, founded tuberculosis sanitariums, specialist clinics, and hospitals. Many others established orphanages and homes for the elderly.

Bina West was instrumental in building up the lodges (or “hives”) during the 1890s by successfully pitching to women an attractive combination of low-cost life insurance coverage, a forum in which to socialize, and opportunities to cultivate organizational and business skills… it had become the largest fraternal order controlled exclusively by women, with memberships passing the 200,000 mark by 1920. The women in these organizations regarded themselves as members of fraternal rather than sororal societies. For them, fraternity, much like liberty and equality, was the common heritage of both men and women.

From Mutual Aid to the Welfare State: Fraternal Societies and Social Services, 1890-1967, David T. Beito, http://www.amazon.com/Mutual-Aid-Welfare-State-Fraternal/dp/0807848417.

 

Parsimony and Something-for-Nothing

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

The Declaration of Independence, http://www.ushistory.org/declaration/document/.

It is this biological necessity [to live in the present] that robs the long-term point of view of reality… The need of living now bends the will to live to the conditions under which living is possible; just as a man patterns his life in the wilderness to primitive conditions, so does he make adjustment to the rules, regulations, controls, confiscations, and interventions imposed on him by political power.

If these restraints on his aspirations are regularized, so that his “way of life” achieves a semblance of stability, he soon loses consciousness of restraint; what he may have resented at the beginning is not only accepted but also defended. For such is the composition of man that his adjustment to environment is not confined to mere physical, insensate accommodation; it must include a conscious acceptance, a justification, a moral support. He cannot live comfortably without giving his blessing to the conditions under which he lives.

His competence with words aids the process of accommodation; with words he develops an ideology that satisfies his mind as to the correctness and even righteousness of his “way of life.” This is the secret ally of the State — the inclination of the human to adore the conditions that have been imposed on him and under which he has found a comfortable adjustment.

Its propaganda machinery, by constant reiteration, turns the ideological phrases into a liturgy; its bureaucracy, which regularizes the cherished “way of life,” acquires the glory of a priesthood; its buildings, even its prisons, are covered with a distinctive aura; its formalism becomes ritualistic, its utterances oracular.

In these circumstances, the long-termer, the prophet who harps on first principles and the ultimate consequences of violation, is a dealer in unreality and an unwanted disturber of the adjustment. His vagaries may be remembered and his prophecy recalled when at long last his forebodings have come to pass. That is, when the restraints multiply to the point where adjustment leaves little area for living, when a miserable existence is all that one can get out of one’s efforts.

It is then that the primordial instinct for freedom looms larger than the instinct for life itself and there is nothing left to do but to throw off the shackles of the State. But that, for the present, is in the unrealistic realm of the long-term.

The instinct for freedom, the yearning for self-expression without let or hindrance, is the stuff of which utopia is made. Were it not for that element in inscrutable man’s makeup he would never be involved in political matters and his history would be like unto a history of the jungle.

Man the producer must have freedom, while man the predator puts limitations on freedom, and this inner dichotomy is the plot of his life story. His search for the “good society” is his search for a denouement. Whether or not it is in the nature of things that the struggle should go on indefinitely, he cannot help trying his hand at fashioning a happy ending. And what follows herewith is simply another attempt at the same thing.

Society must always keep its eyes on and, when need be, lay its hands on political power. In practice, surveillance and supervision take the form of constitutionalism, or written limitations on political power, with popular suffrage the enforcement agency. Experience shows, however, that constitutions and suffrage only delay, do not prevent, the fermentation of political power; men can and do vote themselves into its clutches under the promise of an unearned advantage, and constitutions are not written in the indelible ink of natural law.

The fallibility of constitutionalism lies in the fact that as political power extends its area of operations it is able to play one group against another, catering to their diverse cupidities, and under cover of such intrasocial conflicts (class struggles) its inherent proclivity for expansion breaks through the constitutional bounds.

If so, what does he mean by freedom? The definition that quickly suggests itself is “absence of restraint.”

The lone frontiersman had plenty of that kind of freedom and found it wanting; he was quite willing to part with some of it in exchange for the higher wages that came from cooperation with others. But cooperation entails an obligation, that of shaping one’s behavior to the wishes of others, of considering public opinion both in one’s occupation and in one’s deportment.

So then, freedom in Society is not the absence of restraints, but the management of one’s affairs by a code of self-governance. The price of the benefits of cooperation is self-restraint.

In particular, the obligation imposed by freedom in Society is respect for the privacy of property. When the frontiersman worked for himself, directly, he concerned himself with property only when a marauding animal or stray human threatened his ownership. He had a keen interest in holding on to the things he produced — because of his labor investment — and kept his firearm ready to assure him of possession.

But the concept of property rights assumed significant meaning when through the mechanism of the marketplace abundances and accumulations made their appearance. It is at this point that self-governance is put to the test. Why? Because man seeks to satisfy his desires with the minimum of exertion.

The same urgency was upon him when he worked alone, but the best he could do about it was to devise some rudimentary short cuts or labor-saving instruments. When the cooperative social organism grows up around him and abundances appear, the thought occurs to him that perhaps the satisfaction of desires at no expenditure of labor is an attainable goal. The something-for-nothing impulse that is imbedded in his makeup sometimes gets beyond the bounds of self-restraint.

At this point, or in expectation of its coming, the common concern for property gives rise to a compact among the members of Society; external restraints on the inner urge are set up. Government is an admission that the “absence of restraint” is inconsistent with freedom.

But, taking him by and large, man does not always act on principle; more often, he acts on considerations of immediate profit and convenience. Reason seems to be less of a guide for human behavior than appetite. His history supplies plenty of support for this opinion. Even in the smallest and most intimate social unit, the family, the predatory impulse finds expression in the Jacob-Esau inheritance swindle, and the use of fraud or force to acquire property without laboring for it is the leitmotiv of the social saga.

Were it not for this dominant element in man’s makeup, conquest would never have been practiced, slavery would never have been known, privileged classes would never have made an appearance, monopolies never instituted and the “welfare state” never thought of. Indeed, there never would have been a State, which is merely the organization of force for the transference of property from “one set of pockets to another.”

Freedom is not the highest in man’s hierarchy of values. He may talk of it in the most laudatory terms, but his behavior belies his protestations. Although at times, when the multiplication of external restraints makes existence unbearable, he does put forth effort to shake off some of the shackles, his overall biography indicates an overpowering passion for something-for-nothing, an inability or unwillingness to hold it in leash, and a readiness to submit to restraints under the promise of loot.

The modern “welfare state” is most illustrative; it is admittedly and boastfully the organization of force for the confiscation and distribution of property. It is the complete antithesis of that “absence of restraint” that is the substance of freedom.

Despite this bald fact, it acquires a reputation for humanitarianism and receives the blessing of all who batten on the production of others as well as of those who hope to: the banker and the industrialist who thrive on the taxes it collects, the farmer who is paid for not farming, the “free lunch” mother, the host of pleaders for special privilege. Is it freedom they want? Hardly. The responsibilities of freedom are in conflict with the law of parsimony.

Human Nature and the “Perfect” Society, Frank Chodorov, 1959, http://mises.org/daily/4837/Human-Nature-and-the-Perfect-Society.

 

Classical Liberalism vs. Private Law Society

 

Guns

The question still boils down to an empirical one: Which policy will save the largest number of lives? This book attempts to measure the trade-off for guns. Without a doubt, both “bad” and “good” uses of guns occur. The question isn’t really whether both occur; it is, rather: Which is more important? In general, do concealed handguns save or cost lives? Even a devoted believer in deterrence cannot answer this question without examining the data, because these two different effects clearly exist, and they work in opposite directions.

National crimes rates have been falling at the same time as gun ownership has been rising. Likewise, states experiencing the greatest reductions in crime are also the ones with the fastest growing percentages of gun ownership. Of all the methods studied so far by economists, the carrying of concealed handguns appears to be the most cost-effective method for reducing crime. Accident and suicide rates were unaltered by the presence of concealed handguns.

While the previous editions involved the largest studies of crime at the time, even more data are now available, and many more states have adopted right-to-carry laws. There are certain points that are beyond dispute:

1. By any measure, concealed-handgun permit holders are extremely law abiding.
2. Even the number of anecdotal news stories of defensive gun uses completely dwarfs any possible bad actions by permit holders with their concealed handguns.
3. No refereed academic articles by economists or criminologists claim that right-to-carry laws have a significant bad effect on crime rates.

Refereed academic journal articles by economists and criminologists continue to show estimates that range from indicating large benefits from right-to-carry laws to claiming to show no change in crime rates. Yet, even those studies that claim that there is no benefit provide more evidence of benefits than no effect and much more evidence of benefits than costs. At some point the risk of gun-free zones is going to have to be seriously discussed. Whether one looks at city or county gun bans or even smaller gun bans involving malls or schools, bans increase violence and murder.

Guns also appear to be the great equalizer among the sexes. Murder rates decline when either more women or more men carry concealed handguns, but the effect is especially pronounced for women. One additional woman carrying a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for women by about 3-4 times more than one additional man carrying a concealed handgun. Over the last decade, gun ownership has been growing for virtually all demographic groups, though the fastest growing group of gun owners is Republican women, thirty to forty-four years of age, who live in rural areas.

There were other surprises as well. While the support for the strictest gun-control laws is usually strongest in large cities, the largest drops in violent crime from legalized concealed handguns occurred in the most urban counties with the greatest populations and the highest crime rates.

Furthermore, I find no crime-reduction benefits from state-mandated waiting periods and background checks before allowing people to purchase guns. At the federal level, the Brady law has proven to be no more effective. Surprisingly, there is also little benefit from training requirements or age restrictions for concealed-handgun permits.

In 2006 there were a total of 642 accidental firearm deaths in the entire country. A relatively small portion of these involved children under age ten: 13 deaths involved children up to four years of age and 18 more deaths involved five- to nine-year-olds. In comparison, 1,305 children died in motor-vehicle crashes and another 392 died when they were struck by motor vehicles, 651 died from drowning, and 348 were killed by fire and burns. Almost three times as many children drown in bathtubs each year than die from all types of firearm accidents.

The U.S. Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey reports that each year there are “only” 110,000 defensive uses of guns during assaults, robberies, and household burglaries… Fifteen national polls… imply that there are 760,000 defensive handgun uses to 3.6 million defensive gun uses of any type of gun per year. Yet even if these estimates are wrong by a very large factor, they still suggest that defensive gun use is extremely common.

The most commonly raised concerns involved fears that armed citizens would attack each other in the heat of the moment following car accidents or accidentally shoot a police officer. The evidence shows that such fears are unfounded: although thirty-one states had so-called nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws when this book was first written, some of them decades old, there existed only one recorded incident of a permitted, concealed handgun being used in a shooting following a traffic accident, and that involved self-defense. No permit holder has ever shot a police officer, and there have been cases where permit holders have used their guns to save officers’ lives.

A 2005 mail survey of twenty-two thousand chiefs of police and sheriffs conducted by the National Association of Chiefs of Police found that 92 percent believed that law-abiding citizens should continue to be able to purchase guns for self-defense. Sixty percent thought that a national concealed-handgun permit law will “reduce rates of violent crime.”

A recent national polling by Zogby International (July 2009)… found that 83 percent supported “laws that allow residents to carry firearms to protect themselves,” while only 11 opposed them.

In the entire United States during a year, only about 30 people are accidentally killed by private citizens who mistakenly believe the victim to be an intruder. By comparison, police accidentally kill as many as 330 innocent individuals annually.

Criminals are motivated by self-preservation, and handguns can therefore be a deterrent. Convicted American felons reveal in surveys that they are much more worried about armed victims than about running into the police.

A national survey that I conducted during 2002 indicates that about 95 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack… While resistance is generally associated with higher probabilities of serious injury to the victim, not all types of resistance are equally risky. By examining the data provided from 1979 to 1987 by the Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey, Lawrence Southwick, confirming earlier estimates by Gary Kleck, found that the probability of serious injury from an attack is 2.5 times greater for women offering no resistance than for women resisting with a gun. In contrast, the probability of women being seriously injured was almost 4 times greater when resisting without a gun. Men also fare better with guns, but the benefits are substantially smaller. Male victims, like females, also run the greatest risk when they resist without a gun… In other words, the best advice is to resist with a gun, but if no gun is available, it is better to offer no resistance than to fight.

More guns, less crime: understanding crime and gun-control laws, John R. Lott, 2010, http://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/0226493660.